Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 79837.947242 84304.977629 88771.435120 93569.190272 98573.712928 103636.704637 109142.734798
2025-01-12 71923.292083 78720.738998 85709.559873 93422.072388 101684.243801 110259.453795 119822.071364
2025-01-19 66199.922612 74555.587223 83338.207948 93236.960138 104061.931894 115518.854331 128539.910160
2025-01-26 63072.776789 72727.336153 83060.723575 94908.899151 108082.603747 122244.809198 138584.430796
2025-02-02 60572.693282 71297.781684 82959.339046 96529.958715 111834.980866 128508.443802 147991.495744
2025-02-09 57931.175019 69486.921882 82233.655709 97267.565208 114441.359531 133374.267511 155748.936435
2025-02-16 55110.524730 67287.369228 80901.527229 97160.569215 115955.353060 136903.129446 161916.482496
2025-02-23 52964.863827 65735.523441 80191.716910 97654.905438 118060.347597 141029.327630 168712.825018
2025-03-02 50796.622844 64040.825074 79211.490169 97737.696754 119606.611561 144452.703774 174660.644128
2025-03-09 49463.389142 63261.259103 79237.650479 98940.903184 122413.961817 149306.340201 182258.292676
2025-03-16 47335.830611 61431.929807 77933.617373 98488.362827 123203.339899 151756.614845 187017.310366
2025-03-23 46353.159443 60945.333375 78194.983801 99871.415549 126148.165802 156729.444940 194752.437323
2025-03-30 45110.003140 60114.145723 78029.668530 100747.047099 128515.579804 161075.297855 201838.497801
2025-04-06 43525.442021 58802.184009 77229.925667 100810.951499 129877.288439 164214.818402 207501.100284
2025-04-13 41936.858307 57425.638773 76297.076204 100662.347586 130941.095043 166971.717466 212696.176555
2025-04-20 41379.232101 57332.470478 76939.681835 102451.303574 134378.250574 172608.165707 221401.619075
2025-04-27 40833.148252 57225.760858 77543.541352 104177.594563 137735.305810 178159.213338 230035.494568
2025-05-04 39892.312283 56569.575395 77420.196411 104962.424771 139904.785210 182253.983179 236903.251960
2025-05-11 38602.458218 55412.052933 76617.180106 104848.773889 140920.074712 184910.634738 241999.710540
2025-05-18 37658.471542 54679.978252 76333.456749 105374.402019 142724.959884 188539.570424 248307.516430
2025-05-25 36575.954797 53727.456081 75731.979312 105462.432349 143952.989556 191439.300846 253711.757665
2025-06-01 36041.901364 53495.252596 76057.135783 106741.598846 146700.538796 196250.832328 261529.461886
2025-06-08 34816.762249 52284.848145 75058.772291 106260.511388 147159.689629 198165.254147 265705.360369